India the swing state

India's so big, it should stand on its own. But historically it's been associated with other states, Luce said. For the longest time, this was Pakistan. In Washington, Luce said, almost every reference to India used to be hyphenated: "India-Pakistan." And for no small reason. As Bill Clinton put it, the sub-continent was the "most dangerous nuclear flashpoint in the world."

Sub-continent tensions linger, of course, but since around the middle part of last decade, India has become more likely to be associated with China and the other BRIC countries (Brazil and Russia).

"That's an extraordinary shift in how India is perceived," Luce said.

Among the emerging economic superpowers, he added, India is the swing state.

"The way India swings will determine the outcome of this slow moving but actually rapidly developing geopolitical battle."

— SCE